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Is Vistra Stock A Buy Today After Trailing The Market?
Is Vistra Stock A Buy Today After Trailing The Market?
October 8th, 2026 · by Trefis TeamVSTYTD-2.8%SPYYTD+14.1%XLUYTD-2.5%Analyze VST →Vistra (VST) stock has lost 16.3% over the past twelve months, trailing the 17.1% return of the S&P 500. Yet the power company is earning more than it did a year ago. Second-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA, a measure of operating profit, climbed more than 30% from the prior year. Large customers are also signing long contracts for its power. So what is a buyer of Vistra stock paying for today?
Image from Pixabay Vistra Buyers Pay 25.3 Times Earnings
Vistra trades at 25.3 times earnings, while the S&P 500 trades at 21.5 times. This means a Vistra buyer pays more for each dollar of profit than a buyer of the index. That higher earnings multiple does not buy a significantly more profitable business. Over the past twelve months, Vistra posted an operating margin of 19.4%, coming in just above the 18.5% margin for the index.
Buyers may instead be paying for the profit Vistra expects to generate next. During an earnings call on August 7, 2026, executives forecast adjusted EBITDA of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion for 2026. They noted they were confident about landing at or above the midpoint of that range.
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What Do Long Power Contracts Change For Vistra?
These agreements can run for many years, and some may pay Vistra more than the prevailing market price. On the August call, executives noted they expect a premium above market rates under long-term power purchase agreements with Meta. In September, New Era Energy signed a 20-year agreement for a Vistra affiliate to supply at least 200 megawatts to the first phase of its Texas data center.
Vistra may also be taking on more debt. On October 3, 2026, the U.S. will lend Vistra about $4.2 billion to boost its nuclear generation, citing a person familiar with the matter. A loan of that size would add to a debt load that already equals 35.4% of Vistra’s market value, compared to 21.4% for the S&P 500.
The risk for Vistra lies in Texas, and much of it is about timing. During the August call, executives pointed out that forward prices in ERCOT, the Texas power market, were meaningfully lower than they were on October 31, 2025. Vistra had built its 2027 profit target on the prices from that earlier date.
Vistra May Update Its 2027 Target Next
Executives expect to update their guidance for 2026 and 2027 on the third-quarter earnings call. In August, the company maintained its 2027 target, which puts the midpoint of its adjusted EBITDA outlook between $7.4 billion and $7.8 billion, despite the lower Texas prices. The company cited its hedging program and higher prices in PJM, another power market it sells into, among the reasons for keeping the target intact.
A 2027 range that is maintained or raised would signal that Vistra still earns enough from PJM and its hedges to make up for weaker Texas prices.
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Does This Mean You Should Act On VST?
Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.
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