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Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

U.S. stock futures are trending higher early Thursday as the final quarter of 2026 kicks off, with investors monitoring ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic backchannels, falling crude oil prices, and the fallout from the Fed’s recent hawkish posture.

The crowd on Polymarket, a Polygon** (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform is heavily bullish for the Oct. 1 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 1?” contract currently reflects an 85% chance of a higher open.

Why That Number Matters

Traders are navigating a new quarter, easing energy markets, and incoming labor data:

• **Positive Index Futures: **Equity futures point to a green open across major benchmarks. Nasdaq 100 futures are leading the charge, up 0.86%. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.48%. Dow Jones futures rose 0.26%, and Russell 2000 futures ticked up 0.42%.

• Geopolitics & Cooling Oil:, Iran announced it received a U.S. response to its proposal aimed at resurrecting the collapsed Gulf ceasefire, just as the final U.S. troops withdrew from neighboring Iraq. The withdrawal comes 23 years after the U.S. invasion and is being celebrated by Iranian-backed militias as a regional victory. Concurrently, energy prices extended their slide, with Brent crude dropping 1.19% to $96.86 a barrel and WTI crude falling 1.40% to $89.15 a barrel.

• **Fed Controversy: **President Donald Trump called for former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to resign or face a lawsuit over massive cost overruns related to the renovation of the Fed’s Washington headquarters. The Fed’s inspector general cited significant project-management deficiencies but found no criminal or administrative misconduct.

• **Earnings & Eco Data: **Thursday’s earnings docket is highlighted by reports from Accenture PLC (NYSE:ACN), **Nike Inc. **(NYSE:NKE), and **McCormick & Company Inc. **(NYSE:MKC). On the economic front, weekly initial jobless claims are due at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by September’s ISM manufacturing PMI and August’s construction spending data at 10:00 a.m. ET.

The Bear Case and Market Outlook

While AI-adjacent stocks helped the Nasdaq Composite post a nearly 3% gain in September, broader market breadth remains exceptionally poor. The Dow Jones ended the month down over 3%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 fell over 4%. According to** David Morrison**, Senior Market Analyst at Trade Nation, this divergence highlights a severe lack of confidence in U.S. corporates outside the artificial intelligence ecosystem.

Adding to broader market friction, the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note spiked 81 basis points in the third quarter—its steepest rate of increase since 2022. Morrison warns that at current levels, investors might begin shifting exposure away from highly valued equities into the relative safety of attractively priced Treasuries, though persistent momentum in the AI sector is currently keeping that rotation at bay.

How the Previous Bet Played Out

The Sept. 30 Polymarket contract resolved “Down.” The contract recorded $69,097 in total trading volume.

On Wednesday, the** SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust** (NYSE:SPY) and** Invesco QQQ Trust ETF **(NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed mixed. SPY fell 0.21% to $762.63, while QQQ rose 0.25% to $739.77. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, **State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust **(NYSE:DIA), ended 0.84% lower at $508.55.