The Nasdaq’s AI Fast‑Track Will Reshape Big Tech — The S&P Might Be Ready to Change the Rules, Too

As the biggest IPOs the world has ever seen touch down, the market, as we know it, is about to change its composition in a big way, especially at the top. With the Nasdaq 100 poised to fast-track SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI in just weeks after their debuts, questions linger about what the S&P 500 will do.

At this juncture, it looks like the S&P is going to reduce the seasoning period (to a proposed six months, down from 12) required before inducting the trio of AI IPOs into the index. Of course, it’s not set in stone quite yet, but, in my humble opinion, it’s the right call as passive investors look to punch their ticket to growth in the AI era.

And while passive investors might be fine with letting the initial boom, bust, and everything in between settle in the first couple of months before their S&P 500 entry, some might actually want exposure to the names sooner rather than later.

The Nasdaq fast-track is something passive AI investors need to know about

With the Nasdaq’s special 15-day “fast-track entry” shift, the trio of mega AI IPOs to come (and the other heavyweight AI-native firms that could follow in their tracks) will be in the Nasdaq 100 after 15 trading sessions. That’s historically fast.

In other words, the Nasdaq 100 could crank things up a notch or two in terms of risk and reward, especially as trading action in the three titans pulls attention away from other areas of the market.

We might wind up with three AI IPOs worth north of $1 trillion when the dust settles. Maybe SpaceX could be worth more than $2 trillion if the hype is there. Given the Elon Musk premium and the mega-cap space scarcity premium, I expect more than just fireworks.

An unprecedented IPO boom calls for rule changes and fast-tracking

Whether just a few weeks of settling is enough “seasoning” for the hottest issues on the planet remains the big question. In other words, it’s uncharted waters. SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI aren’t your run-of-the-mill IPOs. They could make a world of difference for an index that takes them in rather than letting them sit on the sidelines, to put it simply.

In other words, they’re Magnificent Seven-level blue chips at the forefront of the AI revolution. If the current market melt-up collides with IPO season, perhaps fast-tracking for the major indices is more of a must, even if it means introducing a bit more uncertainty.

At the end of the day, indexers probably want an accurate slice of American business, and given the sheer size of these mega IPOs, I’d sell the accelerated inclusion is more than warranted.

With Cerebras (NASDAQ:CBRS) already fast-tracked into the S&P 500, the same kind of accelerated entry is likely to be expected for SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI shortly after they debut in public markets. But the big question is how long the seasoning period should be. Is six months good enough? Or should it be shortened further?

In my humble opinion, I’d rather be in the S&P 500 than the Nasdaq 100 since I think the “just right” amount of seasoning lies between a month and a half a year. Just enough to settle things down, but not long enough such that the index isn’t as accurate a reflection of corporate America, given the size of the IPOs on the horizon.