Doug Polk’s Survey Reveals the Mechanic That Assures Poker’s Future

Most poker players overestimate their skill level.

That’s the big takeaway from a recent survey conducted by poker pro and cardroom owner Doug Polk, who broke down his findings in a recent YouTube video.

And that matters. Because for all of the consternation about poker’s future, the fact that players consistently overestimate their own edges is part of what keeps the games alive. If everyone were honest with themselves, nobody besides rich gamblers with tons of disposable income would ever sit in a game full of stronger players.

But having an inflated sense of their own abilities gives players the confidence to play in games in which they may actually be an underdog. That illusion is a powerful force. It prevents games from drying up and keeps players coming back for more.

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The Key Numbers from Polk’s Survey

Polk received 1,487 responses to his survey. Of those responses, 80% classified themselves as above average.

Funnily enough, only 54% of poker players classified themselves as long-term winners. Furthermore, one out of eight players classifying themselves as a lifetime loser still rated their own skill level at least an eight on a 10-point scale.

Obviously, the math isn’t tracking here. There’s no way 80% of poker players can be above average, by definition.

Of course, this only represents a small subset of players. A bigger sample would be needed to get a clearer idea of exactly what percentage of the poker population considers themselves above average. Polk’s survey may also suffer from selection bias. The people who follow his content and participate in his surveys are likely the sorts of players who work on their games and may actually have a higher skill level than a selection of 1,487 poker players chosen at random.

Poker and the Dunning-Kruger Effect

However, I don’t think this is a complete fluke or something explainable by selection bias alone. It’s a classic case of the Dunning-Kruger effect, and it isn’t limited to poker.

For those unfamiliar, the Dunning-Kruger effect describes a cognitive bias. From David Dunning:

**…poor performers in many social and intellectual domains seem largely unaware of just how deficient their expertise is. Their deficits leave them with a double burden—not only does their incomplete and misguided knowledge lead them to make mistakes but those exact same deficits also prevent them from recognizing when they are making mistakes and other people choosing more wisely.

In many areas of life, the Dunning-Kruger effect can be harmless. A person who thinks they are a great cook might serve mediocre food to their guests, but nobody will likely be seriously put out by that.

In poker, though, it can be quite expensive. A player’s overinflated sense of their own skill will lead them to play in games too tough for them to beat. Often, this means games that are too large for their bankroll as well, delivering a double whammy of high variance and a negative expectation**.

Polk’s survey hints at one possible contributing factor to this phenomenon. Almost 57% of players said their biggest win was larger than their biggest loss. Only about 2% said the reverse.

This mechanic likely owes to the popularity of tournament poker. A player is bound to hit a decent-sized score eventually if they put in enough tournament volume. As Polk notes in the video, that creates an easy reference point in one’s mind, a touchstone for the self-weaved narrative that the player is a winner.

The Illusion of an Edge Helps Keep Poker Profitable

Combine the Dunning-Kruger effect with the natural ebbs and flows of variance — even a losing cash player will hit a stretch of wins at some point — and it’s very easy for poker players to fool themselves about their own skill levels. That creates an environment in which many imagine themselves to be stronger players than they really are.

It’s easy to look at players we perceive as mediocre who sell tournament action at inflated markups and roll our eyes. I’ve done it more times than I can count.

But now, I’m laughing at my own short-sightedness. I should be thankful for the reality that poker players consistently overestimate their own edges. If everyone had a clear idea of where they stood in relation to the rest of the players in their games, poker might have a lot less action.

I worry sometimes about the future of our game. It’s natural to get anxious about poker’s future when I see declining tournament participation or quotes from Tom Dwan saying the game is dying.

But as long as players believe themselves more skilled than they really are, plenty of good games should remain. People can improve their technical proficiency with solvers. Defeating the biases in our own brains might be a much tougher challenge.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I have to get to a $10-$25-$50 pot-limit Omaha game that’s too big for my bankroll.

Mo Nuwwarah

Deputy Editor

Mo has been reporting on the poker industry since 2013, excepting a foray into the sports betting space from 2021-2025. He's a regular in live tournaments and cash games at buy-in levels around $400-$2,000.