Management Raised the Bar For Eli Lilly Stock; Does The Chart Agree?

September 29th, 2026 · by Trefis TeamLLYYTD+10.8%SPYYTD+12.9%XLVYTD+11.6%Analyze LLY →Eli Lilly (LLY) raised its revenue forecast for 2026 on August 5, when it reported second-quarter results. Since the close before that release, Eli Lilly stock has gained 6.3%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.7%. The raise was modest and came with a lower earnings forecast, which is why the price chart is worth a look. So does Eli Lilly’s price chart agree with management?

Image from Pixabay

Mostly Yes: Eli Lilly’s Price Chart Agrees With Management

Eli Lilly stock closed 0.7% above its 50-day average on September 28, 2026. That average is the mean closing price over the last 50 trading days. The stock was also 10.9% above its 200-day average, which covers a longer stretch. The 50-day average was above the 200-day average too, so technically the uptrend remains in place.

The entire gain came at once. In the two sessions around the release, the stock rose 6.8% as the S&P 500 slipped 0.3%. Investors were reacting to the full release: the quarter’s results and the new forecast together.

Since then, the stock has lost 0.5%, close to the S&P 500’s 0.3% dip. So Eli Lilly stock jumped on the news, then moved with the market. The stock is now only just above its 50-day average.

What Did Eli Lilly Raise And Cut?

Eli Lilly now expects 2026 revenue of $85 billion to $87 billion. The previous forecast had a midpoint of $83.5 billion. The middle of the new range is 3% above the old forecast, a modest raise. Management credited strong first-half sales of its key products.

Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly’s diabetes and obesity drugs, brought in $14.9 billion in the second quarter. That was close to two-thirds of the quarter’s revenue.

In the same release, Lilly updated its 2026 non-GAAP earnings-per-share forecast to $35.50 to $36.50, lowering the midpoint to $36.00 from a previous midpoint of $36.25. Management said the update reflects $3.03 per share of second-quarter charges for acquired research projects. Before those charges, the forecast would have risen by $2.78 per share at the midpoint. So the earnings update came from deal costs, not weaker sales.

What Must Eli Lilly Deliver Before 2026 Ends?

Eli Lilly can reach the middle of the new range with much slower growth in the second half than in the first. Revenue in the first half of 2026 was $42.8 billion, up 51% from a year earlier. The middle of the new range leaves $43.2 billion for the last two quarters. Lilly can reach it with 17.2% growth over the same quarters a year earlier.

Management said some one-time items, including changes to U.S. rebate estimates, will not repeat in the second half. Management also pointed to a wave of Mounjaro launches in new countries a year earlier. Those launches make the year-earlier quarters harder to beat.

Foundayo, Lilly’s weight-loss pill, is a new source of growth. On September 14, Lilly said Foundayo had won more than 30% of new U.S. patients starting oral weight-loss drugs. Lilly also expects a U.S. decision on Foundayo for type 2 diabetes later in 2026.

That high bar matters because Eli Lilly trades at 39.6 times trailing earnings versus 22.1 for the S&P 500, leaving little margin for error if second-half execution falters.

You will see which way this goes in the third- and fourth-quarter reports. If Lilly’s sales grow faster than the new range requires, the raise would look cautious. The stock would then have a reason to climb further. If a quarter falls short, or the stock slips below its 50-day average, the chart would stop agreeing with management.

Beyond LLY: A Systematic Way To Grow Your Money

Before you decide on LLY, consider a better choice. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, beating the benchmark that combines the three major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking.

Invest with Trefis →More Ideas →