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Phil Hellmuth discusses poker, solvers, and investments in AMA
All-time World Series of Poker bracelet leader Phil Hellmuth took the stage for a Reddit Ask Me Anything (AMA). He appeared to do so at the behest of Octopi Poker, a poker solver product in which he has apparently invested and become an ambassador.
In typical Hellmuth fashion, his answers ran the full gamut from insightful to cringeworthy to just plain weird. PokerScout examined the full list of Hellmuth’s comments on topics ranging from solvers to his poker career to his past endorsements. Here’s how our fact-checking evaluated his responses to various queries.
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**Question: **What would you guess a good pro, say #10-20 on POY leaderboards (Kempe, Elias, Foxen, Peters, etc…) makes in net profit in a year from purely poker tournaments after accounting for selling pieces?
**Hellmuth’s answer: **Much less than you think! They trade pieces w each other, sell pieces to poker players and businessman, and it is expensive to travel the world playing tourneys.
**Verdict: **Hellmuth is probably correct here. Most top tournament pros aren’t netting as much as most fans likely imagine. This recent David Peters story provided a stark example. As a though exercise, imagine a traveling pro who plays $5 million in buy-ins for the year. If the player has a 10% ROI, they expect to net $500,000. Say they’re playing for half of themselves on average, which is still quite a lot, and they’re down to $250,000 before taxes and expenses. It’s easy to get starry-eyed about the millions of dollars in cashes these players pile up, but it’s not telling the whole story.
**Question: **Would you recommend a young guy going for the poker pro path now? It’s easier than ever to learn, but the field’s average level is also higher.
Hellmuth’s Answer: It does seem like players are playing better. But I still see tons of mistakes! If you are great at poker you will find a way to make it.
Verdict: Hellmuth’s right about this one, too. Poker is getting tougher as the general skill level rises. That being said, plug any random hand from even a top tournament pro into a solver and you’re likely to see at least one deviation from GTO. That could be a mistake, or it could be a conscious attempt to exploit, but nobody is playing solver-perfect, and nobody ever will. An excellent, disciplined player can still build a career or profitable side hobby.
Misleading, Untruthful Statements from Hellmuth’s AMA
**Question: **Online tracking shows that you’ve lost $956,040 over all the live streamed games you’ve played in over the past 20 years. Why do you think have such a tough time beating live streamed cash games?
Hellmuth’s Answer: Online tracking is WAY off! How insulting!! I won 22-out-of-23 sessions of filming from 2013 to 2020. Including biggest winner in “Rob’s Game” for like $400,000! I did have some losses the mast [sic] few years, but more wins than losses.
Verdict: Not quite. According to Highroll Poker, Hellmuth won approximately $300,000 over tracked games during the years described. He was a net loser from 2015 through 2017 (there were no tracked games from 2013-2015) in 24 sessions. A big upswing followed so that he wound up a big winner during that frame, but he didn’t win almost every session, and Highroll Poker does have him down $956,040 overall.
**Question: **If you started playing in 2015 how many bracelets would you be able to win in your career?
Hellmuth’s Answer: I think I have won 8 or 9 since 2015? Maybe 7?
Verdict: Not even close. He won one in 2015, so depending on the interpretation of “since,” Hellmuth has won either three or four. That’s four bracelets in 10 years of play (excepting 2020, since there was no true WSOP). Hence, Hellmuth’s pace has slowed slightly compared to 1989-2014, when he won 13 in 26 years.
Uncategorized: Checks, But Not Really of Facts
**Question: **If someone invested 10,000 in Bitcoin Latinum in 2021, how much money would they have today?
Hellmuth’s Answer: Not sure many people bought Bitcoin Latinum. Unlike most people that endorse a coin, I NEVER ever told anyone to buy it. I did wear the hat for 2-3 years though. I wish everything I endorsed would have worked: most does.
Verdict: This is an obvious needle, but Hellmuth’s evasive answer is ridiculous. For one, it’s absurd to claim that he wore a hat for a product but wasn’t telling people to buy it. The message is implicit when he puts on the hat. Second, the idea that Hellmuth has some kind of sterling track record on his endorsements is insulting to every player who was robbed during the course of the Ultimate Bet fiasco. Newer readers who have come to poker in the past 15 years or so can find the 60 Minutes report on the matter here. Oh, and the actual answer is close to $0, since Bitcoin Latinum is listed with a market cap of $0 on publicly available trackers.
**Question: **Hey Phil genuine question: In your opinion what mistakes to [sic] most pros make in mtts that you do not? What do you think your edge is over so many good players? Is it that you fold more, giving up EV because you think players will just hand you that EV and more later on? And do you think your edges are changing in relevancy over time as more players become studied? If so in what direction are they changing? I would assume they’re becoming less relevant but maybe it’s the opposite? Please be as specific as possible, no pokernews answers!
Hellmuth’s Answer: I do try to avoid flips as often as I can. I do try to fold JJ or QQ pre-flop for 25 big blinds. Or fold JJ QQ when I “Feel I am beat” white magic! Reading ability separates me from the crowd. Each generation if [sic] learning is different. I felt it was awful in 2004-2010, awful in 2010-2015, really bad 2015 to 2018. I think GTO was really bad! Solvers are the first thing that make sense to me.
Verdict: This just reads like a clumsy, ham-handed attempt at selling the Octopi solver. Fair enough on thinking the meta was missing something in prior years, but poker strategy has taken a massive leap, thanks in part to the advent of solvers. Hellmuth says the solvers “make sense” but also says game theory optimal play is bad. It doesn’t sound like he’s aware of what either of those things means. And if the solvers make sense, then why is Hellmuth looking for spots to fold large pairs with a short stack? Good luck finding solver outputs that recommend those plays. This is just a confusing response.
Mo Nuwwarah
Deputy Editor
Mo has been reporting on the poker industry since 2013, excepting a foray into the sports betting space from 2021-2025. He's a regular in live tournaments and cash games at buy-in levels around $400-$2,000.